Luis A. Ribera, Professor at Texas A&M University and C-FARE Board Member
The U.S. is highly competitive in agricultural production and is the largest agricultural exporter in the world. In 2025, these exports were estimated to total $171.5 billion. Given that the world population is expected to reach nearly 10 billion by 2050, the U.S. is well positioned to be the source of agricultural products to feed the growing population. Moreover, global GDP is expected to grow between 2-4 percent through 2050. This means that not only there will be more people to feed, but also those people will have more purchasing power.
Of the top eight U.S. agricultural export commodities, the U.S. ranks first in global exports of corn and pork, and second in soybeans, cotton and poultry. Meanwhile, Brazil, another powerhouse in agricultural production with $132.1 billion in agricultural exports in 2025, ranks first in global exports of soybeans, beef and veal, cotton and chicken, and second in corn and soybean meal. Brazil’s ability to double crop (produce two crops in the same season) and potential to double or even triple its cropland puts them in a very advantageous position to continue to increase its global food market share. On the other hand, the U.S. has its high productivity and vast agricultural infrastructure--i.e., roads, rail, waterways and ports--that have helped it to stay globally competitive.
One factor eroding U.S. competitiveness, however, is the increase in government regulations. As figure 1 shows, the total numbers of pages published in the code of federal regulations increased from around 15,000 in 1950 to around 190,000 in 2023. The annual total cost of complying with U.S. regulations dwarfs the GDPs of most countries; if it were a country, it would be the fourth largest economy in the word, only behind the U.S., China and Japan. To illustrate, 23.8 percent of the cost of a new single-family home, or an average of $93,870, is due to government regulations, according to a study by the National Association of Home Builders.
Regulatory costs are an added source of concern to agricultural production as well. A study by Hamilton and McCullough (2025) showed that while production costs for a lettuce farmer in Salinas Valley, California, have increased significantly from 2006 to 2024, regulatory costs have increased at an even higher rate over that same time period (Table 1). In 2006, surveyed lettuce growers reported regulatory costs totaling, on average, $109.15 per acre, increasing to $977.30 per acre in 2017, and growing to $1,600.12 per acre in 2024, which is a 63.7 percent increase from 2017 and a 1,366 percent increase since 2006. Regulatory costs comprised just 1.24 percent of production costs in 2006, then rose to 8.9 percent in 2017 and 12.6 percent of production costs in 2024. Agriculture is a hard business to be in: Producers deal with constant price volatility, increasing input costs, pests and weather, and many other challenges outside of their control. Increasing regulatory costs adds yet another barrier to remaining competitive in the global arena against countries that are not similarly burdened.
References
Crews Jr., Clyde Wayne. 2026. “Ten Thousand Commandments, 2026: An Annual Snapshot of the Federal Regulatory State.” 30th Anniversary Competitive Enterprise Institute Edition.
Calil, Yuri and Luis A. Ribera. 2019. “Brazil’s Agricultural Production and Its Potential as Global Food Supplier.” Choices Magazine. Quarter 3.
Hamilton, Lynn and Michael McCullough. “A Decade of Change: A Case Study of Regulatory Compliance Costs in the Produce Industry.” Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo. January 2025.
Figure 1. Total Pages Published in the Code of Federal Regulations, 1950-2023.
Table 1. Regulatory Costs for Salinas Valley Lettuce Grower, 2006, 2017, and 2024.
Source: Hamilton & McCullough, 2025
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